Risk Analysis and Simulation (RAS)

Target:
The aim of this course is to introduce statistical methods of risk analysis and simulation of rare events. Our method courses are designed independently of software and are­also suitable for users who do not work with statistics.

Target group:
This course is aimed at professionals in service or industrial companies who want to develop best-case or worst-case scenarios, forecast damage and fraud or assess risks such as product defects or incidents.

Course contents:
The course provides a practical overview of risk assessment and simulation methods. Special distribution models and simulation techniques based on pseudo-random numbers are used. The topics:

  • Stationary time series and block extrema
  • Risk as quantile of a frequency distribution
  • Value-at-Risk (VaR) und Expected Shortfall (ES)
  • General extreme value distribution Type I-III (GEV)
  • Threshold value method: Peak over Threshold (POT)
  • Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD)
  • Mathematical generators for pseudo-random numbers
  • Simulation of univariate distribution models
  • Latin Hypercube Sampling vs Monte Carlo Method
  • Risk assessment with multivariate simulation

The course is designed to be software-independent and cross-industry. Participants receive a printed manual with all course slides.

Prerequisites:
In order to fully benefit from the training, the participants should have methodological knowledge in univariate statistics.

Supplementary courses:
For participants without sufficient previous knowledge, we offer our Methods Course "Introduction to Statistics - Part 1" (STA1), and for further consolidation the Methods Courses "Big Data Analytics" (BDA), "Methods for Statistical Data Mining" (MDM) and "Data Mining in Practice" (PDM).

Duration: 1 day Time: 9:30 - 17:00 hrs

 

Register

 

back to overview